(I intended this to be one or two paragraphs, but the topic intrigued me, and as I have nothing to do for a while, I decided to do some real research on it.) I don't believe that homosexuality will ever be eradicated from society. No matter how much some wish that it were.
First off, most estimates place the numbers of homosexual persons as anywhere from 6-10% of the total population in the US. As Britain is smaller (but curiously, statistics on homosexuality are higher here), I'll use the US. For my purpose, we'll go with 7.5%.
There's about 300 million people in the US. This means that assuming 7.5% of all people, not including people who do not *know* they are homosexual or haven't come to this conclusion yet, there would be 22,500,000. However, as only 70% of the population are adults and adult sexuality is what we want to focus on.
That leaves 210,000,000 adults in the US, of which we'll assume 7.5% are homosexual and conscious of it. This comes to 15,750,000 homosexuals, both men and women, and I do not believe this accounts for bisexuality. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Now, only about 33% of lesbian (female-female) households and 22% of gay (male-male) households in the US (source: 2000 US Census) have a child - natural or adopted was not listed - under the age of 18.
Assume, as your position stated, that homosexuality is 100% a genetic caused trait and these figures (averaging it out to 27.5% and assuming that there is only one child, which is often not the case, so this is likely a low estimate) are to be taken as a vague representation of the GLBT community in the US. If there are 15.75 million homosexuals and 27.5% of them have a child, that means that there are 4,331,250 children of homosexual couples in the US. Only about 5% of those children are adopted - as in, not the biological child of either adopting parent. Assuming the other 95% have at least one biological homosexual parent, 4,331,249 children have a biologically homosexual parent. Following your theory, this would present at least one parent being a genetic carrier of the "gay gene."
One thing I can concede to is that what we'll call the gay gene (which, for our purposes, we'll call G) appears to be recessive. If we have a homosexual biological parent (Gg or GG - for argument's sake, we'll go with Gg, meaning the person is heterozygous for homosexuality) and a heterosexual biological parent (gg - recessive for homosexuality) which would make their offspring (Gggg). This would mean any offspring would have a 25% chance of being gay. Going back to our number of biologically homosexuality factored children (4,331,249), this brings us to a new generation of 1 082 812 homosexual children.
Now, I realize this is a bit fishy science, but I'm going with the most simple understanding and interpretation of genetics. This statistic ignores that children of homosexuals are no more likely to be homosexual than children of heterosexual couples, and it ignores the fact that heterosexual couples have gay children all the time, even without any family history. However, it does illustrate my point - if homosexuality is, as you proposed, COMPLETELY genetic (which modern science does not suggest), it will still never be fully eradicated.
Your point that gays are freer to not marry heterosexually was an excellent one. Indeed, this could prove to be a factor in the future. However, the above statistics show that many, many gays and lesbians have natural children, thus passing on the carrier gene.
Now, a second point, with a lot fewer numbers. In historical context, homosexuality or homosexual practices have existed in almost every society. In ancient Greece, it was, indeed expected that the male nobility and ruling class engage in pederasty - a sacred relationship between an adult male and adolescent boy, often these were tutor-pupil relationships. Pederasty and homosexual affairs are also well documented in Asia, Europe, the middle east, and some African societies long before the advent of Christianity or western influence. Using the example of ancient Greece, men who had had pederastic relationships did often marry a female later on in life, producing children, as this was seen as an obligation.
With that gone in our society, we cannot be certain of the future of this "gay gene," but that brings me back to something I touched on earlier - there are many people who do not know that they are gay, or do not figure it out until later in life. Many of these people will have been in heterosexual relationships that produce children. There is also surrogacy and sperm donor programmes, and with society becoming more accepting of gays and lesbians, so too will these programmes become more accepted as an option for homosexual couples to have biological children, which will be factored for homosexuality themselves, thus perpetuating the gene.
A third point, also in historical context, is that if homosexuality was present since human history began, than this means that at some point in time, we were ALL infused with a "gay gene." Humans, interbreeding for thousands upon thousands of generations, will all have been exposed to this gene, which, even in a recessive form, could resurface in any of us, at any time. However recessive it may be, we will not be rid of this gene because it exists within all of us, in some small form. It's just like any other gene we can look at: a baby with blue eyes will occasionally be born to a Chinese family, which will have had brown eyes for hundreds of generations. Just because this is extremely recessive, does not mean that the gene simply disappears. It doesn't work that way. You can't just look at two parents and say: "Dad is straight, mum is straight, thus, neither are carriers of the homosexual gene." We've all seen two parents with blonde hair, and a kid that ends up with red hair; or that out of millions of dark-skinned people, suddenly an albino turns up.
You said that if we do not agree that homosexuality is completely genetic, to say so, so this is where statistics and historical context descend into my personal opinion - based upon casual research, as well as my own experience.
To me, there is absolutely no way that homosexuality is entirely genetic. Take, for example, that many heterosexual parents, who had heterosexual parents, who had (etc etc etc), can suddenly produce a gay child. You may also look at a twin study. There are many well-documented cases of identical twins - completely identical genetically and physically - where one is clearly homosexual, and one is clearly heterosexual. This leaves no room to say that it is genetic, since they have identical genetic coding, so either it isn't genetic, or one of them is extremely deep in the closet.
I personally believe that homosexuality is the end result of many different factors: biological, neurological, genetic, early environment, and even (though my GLBT contemporaries may be unhappy about it) choice, to some extent. No one factor, with out current science, can we isolate as the absolute cause of homosexuality.
If one factor loads the gun, another could pull the trigger. Some people may have a latent predisposition to homosexuality, and go their entire lives as a heterosexuality, simply because it was never triggered. If Joe has, say, a genetic predisposition to homosexuality, but it will only be expressed if his early environment fosters it, and Joe's early environment does not, we can say that Joe is likely to be a heterosexual. Or if Anna's early environment could foster homosexuality, but she has no biological predisposition to it, would she become homosexual?
Alas, science has no definitive answers. But my point still stands - whichever approach or theory you choose to take and believe in, homosexuality has always existed, and will always exist.