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Quote: from Forever Angel at 8:24 pm on July 9, 2009

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"... a point before the formation of the Earth, and so on."    

 So an accident that happens this afternoon was predetermined even before the universe was born?

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I don't make the claim that the causal chain can be traced back to "before" the conception of the universe, whatever that may mean. In the universe, as it stands, effect follows cause and everything is deterministic and predictable including what goes on in our brains.

Can you clarify your objection here? I would have thought it obvious that the "accident" is a predictable outcome of the laws of physics and the world as it stands.

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Quote: from Forever Angel at 10:45 pm on July 10, 2009

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From your link...

 "Their desires, beliefs or what have you may influence their choice, but free acts are not caused by prior states in the agent." (pg 138) Key words... "influence" and "caused".

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Note the bold.

That statement is self-contradictory. If your behavior is not caused, it cannot be influenced either. If your behavior is influenced by drugs, how can it then be free?

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Science can predict the future based on the past?

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Quote: from Forever Angel at 10:59 pm on July 10, 2009

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Science can predict the future based on the past?

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Science indeed predicts that the sun will rise tomorrow and that things will keep falling downwards.

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"Can you clarify your objection here? I would have thought it obvious that the "accident" is a predictable outcome of the laws of physics and the world as it stands."

Post edited at 3:13 pm on July 10, 2009 by Forever Angel

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"God does not play dice" - Albert Einstein
"God does play dice" - Stephen Hawking

Bohica

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If one knew all the variables (road surface, weather conditions, speed, etc.) in the equation, it could be predicted.

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So many variables, and you ignore Occam's razor...

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"God does not play dice" - Albert Einstein
"God does play dice" - Stephen Hawking

Bohica

Likewise, predicting a car accident is a very difficult thing to do because of the number of variables, but in principle it is no different than projecting the trajectory of a tennis ball.

The fact that we do not at present, and may never in the future, have the processing power to predict such things does not chance their fundamental predictability, and it is the fundamental predictability of the universe which we are concerned with here.

edit: What does Occam's Razor have to do with it?

Post edited at 3:32 pm on July 10, 2009 by SpM

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edit: What does Occam's Razor have to do with it?

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We have a perfectly naturalistic explanation for human decisions (and it does not dispute that "what we do is up to us and we make our own choices"). Postulating a magical area of the human brain which is immune to the fundamental laws of nature and logically absurd is not necessary.

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No, the explanation which involves the fewest unnecessary assumptions is usually correct.

We have a perfectly naturalistic explanation for human decisions (and it does not dispute that "what we do is up to us and we make our own choices"). Postulating a magical area of the human brain which is immune to the fundamental laws of nature and logically absurd is not necessary.

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Cause and effect. Nothing you think or do exists in a vacuum. It is the result of what happened before. Is it such a great stretch of the imagination to trace that back through the centuries?

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Quote: from SpM at 3:47 pm on July 10, 2009

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Quote: from Forever Angel at 8:24 pm on July 9, 2009

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"... a point before the formation of the Earth, and so on."

  So an accident that happens this afternoon was predetermined even before the universe was born?

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 I don't make the claim that the causal chain can be traced back to "before" the conception of the universe, whatever that may mean. In the universe, as it stands, effect follows cause and everything is deterministic and predictable including what goes on in our brains.  

 Can you clarify your objection here? I would have thought it obvious that the "accident" is a predictable outcome of the laws of physics and the world as it stands.

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Science can predict the future based on the past?

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. . .

That's a core feature of science.

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"The larger the island of knowledge, the longer the
shoreline of wonder" (Ralph W. Sockman)

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Quote: from SpM at 6:14 pm on July 10, 2009

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Cause and effect. Nothing you think or do exists in a vacuum. It is the result of what happened before. Is it such a great stretch of the imagination to trace that back through the centuries?

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If I lived 30 or 40 thousand years, I suppose it wouldn't. But I can't relate to the idea that the movement of a butterfly's wings in any era of history has anything to do with a single decision or action in my life today.

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What is it that you don't get? That dynamical and non-linear systems are very sensitive with regards to  initial conditions? It isn't that hard to understand, is it?

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"The larger the island of knowledge, the longer the
shoreline of wonder" (Ralph W. Sockman)

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Quote: from Forever Angel at 12:59 am on July 11, 2009

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Quote: from SpM at 3:47 pm on July 10, 2009

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Quote: from Forever Angel at 8:24 pm on July 9, 2009

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"... a point before the formation of the Earth, and so on."      

  So an accident that happens this afternoon was predetermined even before the universe was born?

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  I don't make the claim that the causal chain can be traced back to "before" the conception of the universe, whatever that may mean. In the universe, as it stands, effect follows cause and everything is deterministic and predictable including what goes on in our brains.

  Can you clarify your objection here? I would have thought it obvious that the "accident" is a predictable outcome of the laws of physics and the world as it stands.

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Science can predict the future based on the past?

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. . .  

That's a core feature of science.

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