Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
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sicktwist
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huh?
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Killtyronedead
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Edit: Wait. It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.
Post edited at 11:05 am on Sep. 6, 2008 by Killtyronedead
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Darraaagh
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It is indeed.
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shadowpool
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Yes it is.
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Edit: Wait. It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.
Not true.
How so?
When you pick a door, say #1, the chance of there being a car behind it is 1/3, yes? And the chances of it not being a car are 2/3.
The host is going to pick a door with a goat behind it regardless of what you pick. So that has no probability. The door you have chosen still has 1/3 chance of being a car and now the other car has 2/3 chance of being a car. It's always best to switch your choice as you will win two thirds of the time.
Post edited at 11:15 am on Sep. 6, 2008 by Darraaagh
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RIMHfire
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I hate these type of questions.
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Edit: Wait. It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.
