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Original Post
Raven Sword Posted at 11:02 am on Sep. 6, 2008
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Replies
RIMHfire Posted at 11:14 am on Sep. 6, 2008
I hate these type of questions.
Darraaagh Posted at 11:14 am on Sep. 6, 2008
Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:10 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from jon davis rocks at 2:09 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:04 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Edit: Wait.  It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.
 

 Not true.


 
How so?

When you pick a door, say #1, the chance of there being a car behind it is 1/3, yes? And the chances of it not being a car are 2/3.

The host is going to pick a door with a goat behind it regardless of what you pick. So that has no probability.  The door you have chosen still has 1/3 chance of being a car and now the other car has 2/3 chance of being a car. It's always best to switch your choice as you will win two thirds of the time.

shadowpool Posted at 11:13 am on Sep. 6, 2008
Yes it is.
Killtyronedead Posted at 11:10 am on Sep. 6, 2008
Quote: from jon davis rocks at 2:09 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:04 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Edit: Wait. It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.

Not true.



How so?
Darraaagh Posted at 11:09 am on Sep. 6, 2008
Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:04 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Edit: Wait.  It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.

Not true.

Darraaagh Posted at 11:04 am on Sep. 6, 2008
It is indeed.
Natsy Posted at 11:04 am on Sep. 6, 2008
no i love goats lol xx
Killtyronedead Posted at 11:04 am on Sep. 6, 2008
Edit: Wait.  It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.
sicktwist Posted at 11:03 am on Sep. 6, 2008
huh?
All 9 previous replies displayed.