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Printable Version of Topic "not much"

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-- Posted by Raven Sword at 11:02 am on Sep. 6, 2008

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?


-- Posted by sicktwist at 11:03 am on Sep. 6, 2008

huh?


-- Posted by Killtyronedead at 11:04 am on Sep. 6, 2008

Edit: Wait.  It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.


-- Posted by Natsy at 11:04 am on Sep. 6, 2008

no i love goats lol xx


-- Posted by Darraaagh at 11:04 am on Sep. 6, 2008

It is indeed.


-- Posted by Darraaagh at 11:09 am on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:04 pm on Sep. 6, 2008


Edit: Wait.  It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.

Not true.


-- Posted by Killtyronedead at 11:10 am on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from jon davis rocks at 2:09 pm on Sep. 6, 2008


Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:04 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Edit: Wait. It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.

Not true.



How so?


-- Posted by shadowpool at 11:13 am on Sep. 6, 2008

Yes it is.


-- Posted by Darraaagh at 11:14 am on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:10 pm on Sep. 6, 2008


Quote: from jon davis rocks at 2:09 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Quote: from Killtyronedead at 7:04 pm on Sep. 6, 2008

Edit: Wait.  It's still 50/50 so really, there is no advantage.
 

 Not true.


 
How so?

When you pick a door, say #1, the chance of there being a car behind it is 1/3, yes? And the chances of it not being a car are 2/3.

The host is going to pick a door with a goat behind it regardless of what you pick. So that has no probability.  The door you have chosen still has 1/3 chance of being a car and now the other car has 2/3 chance of being a car. It's always best to switch your choice as you will win two thirds of the time.


-- Posted by RIMHfire at 11:14 am on Sep. 6, 2008

I hate these type of questions.


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