-- Posted by rchaneberg at 8:58 am on Nov. 9, 2006 I was just reading in another topic and someone said that they hoped that the United States would fall soon. That brought up the question in my mind: what wold happen if the U.S. fell suddenly, and if it fell slowly. If it fell quickly into a civil war or a multitude of small nations, I believe that most of the world's economies would collapse or come very close to it, because we are nearly every countries largest trading partner. I also believe that the U.N. would collapse, since the United States pays roughly one-third of its budget. If it fell slowly, I don't know what would happen. Any thoughts? -- Posted by Forever Angel at 9:08 am on Nov. 9, 2006 I read that thread as well. I think you're pretty much right about what would happen after a sudden collapse. It would be a very chaotic world. As far as the slow decline, I sometimes wonder if that's not happening already. America's "greatest generation" is pretty much gone and I don't see the "ME" generation as a solution. -- Posted by telomere13 at 12:07 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 I think people are inflating the United State's value to world affairs.  Frankly, if the United States suddenly vanished I don't think a great deal would happen outside of the United States.  I don't think the world is all that reliant on trade with the United States.  Sure, things would change, but this assumption that the world needs us and that we're the center of everything just seems a bit silly. -- Posted by Hoop Jargon at 2:58 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 In what sense do you mean fall?   Are you talking economically or as a nation?   Either way would result in thw world economy shitting itself with the variable being how long this would happen for.    Hypothetically,   if it was a gradual dissolution and California and Texas gained independance,   nothing much would happen.   Because the purchasing power of North America wouldn't change much,   but if there was a war between the East and West (Which wont happen)   the world economy would absolutely shut down,  probably for a number of years in result fueling a world wiide depression.     But the market would adjust eventually,   because Americas resource or population wont necessarily dissapear,   it would be like Europe after World War 1.         -- Posted by rchaneberg at 3:10 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 I believe that the fall of the U.S. as a nation would, at least temporarily, result in an economic collapse as well, as inter-barriers would then become national borders, and organizational things would have to be dealt with. -- Posted by obvious child at 3:23 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 Quote: from telomere13 at 10:07 am on Nov. 9, 2006 I think people are inflating the United State's value to world affairs.  Frankly, if the United States suddenly vanished I don't think a great deal would happen outside of the United States.  I don't think the world is all that reliant on trade with the United States.  Sure, things would change, but this assumption that the world needs us and that we're the center of everything just seems a bit silly. I disagree with that. If the US collapses, trillions upon trillions, upon trillions of dollars would virtually vanish from the world's wealth. The banks holding trillions in US debt would find themselves holding paper notes worth nothing. That alone would cause a collapse within many of the major European and Asian banks. With the collapse of a huge portion of their financial sectors, Japan and Europe will then themselves enter a huge recession if not depression. With 1st world markets no longer purchasing anything, China, oil producers and the 3rd world will then follow down the toliet. There's clear reason why financial experts across the world are yelling at the US to fix its debt problem. China could do this now if it really wanted to as it holds huge amounts of securities.   Like it or not Boys and Girls, the world runs on the confidence of Consumers. The destruction of the most stable, largest financial block in the World is going to destroy that confidence. Without the US, financially, the world goes to Hell. -- Posted by cgman at 3:25 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 You have already come up with a plausible consequence should the U.S. fall suddenly. However even if the U.S.'s decline is gradual even over half a century or more the world's economy would still be in much the same position that it would be in if the U.S. had a sudden fall. The problem is that every country in the world is integrated to the U.S. on an economic level. Their integration with our economy is based solely on the amount of money that country posseses and can trade with. So if the U.S. fell all these countries would lose the money needed to sustain them. That would cause us to fall into something akin to the Dark Ages. Not nearly as severe but the world would enter a stage of "limbo" for quite some time. Well that is my opinion. -- Posted by Moda at 9:34 am on Nov. 10, 2006 Quote: from obvious child at 3:23 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 Quote: from telomere13 at 10:07 am on Nov. 9, 2006 I think people are inflating the United State's value to world affairs.  Frankly, if the United States suddenly vanished I don't think a great deal would happen outside of the United States.  I don't think the world is all that reliant on trade with the United States.  Sure, things would change, but this assumption that the world needs us and that we're the center of everything just seems a bit silly. I disagree with that. If the US collapses, trillions upon trillions, upon trillions of dollars would virtually vanish from the world's wealth. The banks holding trillions in US debt would find themselves holding paper notes worth nothing. That alone would cause a collapse within many of the major European and Asian banks. With the collapse of a huge portion of their financial sectors, Japan and Europe will then themselves enter a huge recession if not depression. With 1st world markets no longer purchasing anything, China, oil producers and the 3rd world will then follow down the toliet. There's clear reason why financial experts across the world are yelling at the US to fix its debt problem. China could do this now if it really wanted to as it holds huge amounts of securities.   Like it or not Boys and Girls, the world runs on the confidence of Consumers. The destruction of the most stable, largest financial block in the World is going to destroy that confidence. Without the US, financially, the world goes to Hell. That may be so but I can also see China emerging as the new US. -- Posted by n0thing at 9:38 am on Nov. 10, 2006 Quote: from Moda at 9:34 am on Nov. 10, 2006 Quote: from obvious child at 3:23 pm on Nov. 9, 2006 Quote: from telomere13 at 10:07 am on Nov. 9, 2006 I think people are inflating the United State's value to world affairs.  Frankly, if the United States suddenly vanished I don't think a great deal would happen outside of the United States.  I don't think the world is all that reliant on trade with the United States.  Sure, things would change, but this assumption that the world needs us and that we're the center of everything just seems a bit silly.    I disagree with that. If the US collapses, trillions upon trillions, upon trillions of dollars would virtually vanish from the world's wealth. The banks holding trillions in US debt would find themselves holding paper notes worth nothing. That alone would cause a collapse within many of the major European and Asian banks. With the collapse of a huge portion of their financial sectors, Japan and Europe will then themselves enter a huge recession if not depression. With 1st world markets no longer purchasing anything, China, oil producers and the 3rd world will then follow down the toliet. There's clear reason why financial experts across the world are yelling at the US to fix its debt problem.    China could do this now if it really wanted to as it holds huge amounts of securities.      Like it or not Boys and Girls, the world runs on the confidence of Consumers. The destruction of the most stable, largest financial block in the World is going to destroy that confidence.    Without the US, financially, the world goes to Hell. That may be so but I can also see China emerging as the new US. No, because after the fall of the US, China would be reduced to nothingness -- Posted by obvious child at 3:16 pm on Nov. 10, 2006 Quote: from n0thing at 7:38 am on Nov. 10, 2006 No, because after the fall of the US, China would be reduced to nothingness Quite likely as China needs the US to fund its development and provide the capital though trade to shift millions of people into better jobs so they won't rebel. There's a reason China has threatened to stop buying US securities if the US raises tarrifs. -- Posted by ajm51987 at 4:37 pm on Nov. 10, 2006 A dark age, what would be interesting is what would arise out of it, as it's almost impossible to predict. -- Posted by throwthisaway at 12:44 pm on Nov. 12, 2006 I think that if the US' economy completely fell, it would be disastrous to the world's economy (as some people have stated), specifically for countries like Canada, Japan, China, and Europe. However, if it was gradual and they still had a little bit of economic hold on the world, everyone would benefit, and China would most definitely rise above the rest. China manufactures tons of products, has the largest workforce and population, and if they had a bigger GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which they would obtain from the fall of the U.S., they could literally achieve world domination. But the US isn't going away anytime soon. It'll be gradual, not another 1929 stock market 'balloon-bursting' crash. -- Posted by obvious child at 2:02 pm on Nov. 12, 2006 The US would go bankrupt in 8 weeks if it didn't have access to foreign capital markets. -- Posted by born to be king at 5:03 am on Dec. 6, 2006 If the US fell there would not only be economic disaster but I feel vulnerable countries like Australia (by Indonesia) could possibly be invaded during these times especially if it was a sudden fall. -- Posted by norock at 9:19 pm on Dec. 18, 2006 there would be a world wide economic super-depression. plain and simple. does anyone have any idea how much money foreign nations have invested in our markets and securities. how do you think we fund our debt. our gov. doesn't wash dishes. they sell securities. also, think of how much is imported into america. if that were cut off, foreign businesses would fail, and the nations would then fall into subsequent circles of, well, unending depression. until a new nation rose and began trade again. (~50-100 years maybe) -- Posted by dreamweaver at 9:24 pm on Dec. 18, 2006 Where one empire falls, another rises. As the USA may be a huge empire right now and if it falls somehow, I 'm sure another will rise to take over.  Historically proven. -- Posted by norock at 9:37 pm on Dec. 18, 2006 HISTORICALLY, the world has never been so interdependant upon surrounding nations. china only in the last half a century has come out of its shell, and japan as well. europe is more intertwined than ever before. and the US is a major part of that. Yes, another nation would follow. but it would most likely be (historically) comunist if anything. although i dont see it very possible that the US could "Fall" -- Posted by Cumulonimbus at 8:54 am on Dec. 19, 2006 Quote: from dreamweaver at 12:24 am on Dec. 19, 2006 Where one empire falls, another rises.   As the USA may be a huge empire right now and if it falls somehow, I 'm sure another will rise to take over.  Historically proven. And Europe was doing so well when Rome fell. -- Posted by Apotheosis at 9:02 am on Dec. 19, 2006 Quote: from norock at 12:37 am on Dec. 19, 2006 HISTORICALLY, the world has never been so interdependant upon surrounding nations. china only in the last half a century has come out of its shell, and japan as well. europe is more intertwined than ever before. and the US is a major part of that. Yes, another nation would follow. but it would most likely be (historically) comunist if anything.   although i dont see it very possible that the US could "Fall" If the US doesn't correct its economical policies soon, it will fall. Which will suck for everyone, because they're a key player in world economics, and would cause a recession/depression in Europe, a halt in China's expansion and massive depression in South America. -- Posted by norock at 12:23 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 Economically speaking, soon is a very relative term. and it is impossible to determine whether or not it will fail. some say the national debt is bad, some say it doesnt matter, no one really knows. 2/3 of the monetary supply is digital, just numbers on computer screens. I think it would take a lot to make americas economy crash.. -- Posted by Apotheosis at 12:25 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 It would more or less take any large Asian bank saying "Hey, dude, show me the money". -- Posted by norock at 12:59 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 And we would what, give it to them? just because they say, Give me the money, doesnt mean we could. thats not how it works. they buy securities, we pay them back over many years with interest, we are able to do so buy selling other securities. sure, if all foreign markets pulled out of our economy we'd have a recession, but i doubt we would"fall" -- Posted by Apotheosis at 1:07 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 Or they can refuse to buy further securities. Or the OPEP can just decide to make a complete switch to euros. -- Posted by obvious child at 7:37 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 Quote: from norock at 10:23 am on Dec. 19, 2006 and it is impossible to determine whether or not it will fail. some say the national debt is bad, some say it doesnt matter, no one really knows. Some debt is good as it stimulates the economy. Huge amounts of debt results in crowding out, in addition to ever increasing interest payments that reduce the gov't ability to provide services.   2/3 of the monetary supply is digital, just numbers on computer screens. I think it would take a lot to make americas economy crash.. On the contrary, it is exteremely easy to crash our economy. Free market economies are based on consumer confidence. Remove that and the economy dies. And we would what, give it to them? just because they say, Give me the money, doesnt mean we could. thats not how it works. That's not how bonds work. Banks buy bonds with a set rate of interest and a date of delivery of principal. What the bank WILL do if it needs money or does not want the security is to sell it. Often at discount which drives down the price for Gov't issued bonds which reduces the ability of the Gov't to raise capital. This in turn reduces the value of the dollar. hence a massive sell off of US securities by Chinese and Japanese banks would effective destroy our economy. It would kill theirs as well, but that's not the point. sure, if all foreign markets pulled out of our economy we'd have a recession, but i doubt we would"fall" Given that the US gov't would go bankrupt in 2 months without access to foregin capital, yes we would fall. The bankruptcy of the gov't would effectively remove the US as a viable market. Apotheosis: Some people believe that the US invaded Iraq because they were about to switch to petroeuros. I'll explain the petrodollar system and how it effectively overvalues the dollar if you want. -- Posted by norock at 7:41 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 the economy falls into a depression or recession, but it will never up and die... -- Posted by obvious child at 10:19 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 Quote: from norock at 5:41 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 the economy falls into a depression or recession, but it will never up and die... if the framework for a economy doesn't exist, then economy doesn't exist. Granted, there will always be some transactions, but nothing on the scale before the loss of the gov't. -- Posted by Apotheosis at 11:15 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 I'd heard about the Iraq petroeuro scenario. I'm hoping Chavez does the same, so we can get rid of him.